Every call, scored in public.

A firm-to-firmer dollar into a Fed hike cycle (mild grind, not a breakout)

Bitcoin trades as a liquidity asset in this regime — real yields/liquidity, not war headlines, are the marginal driver

$91 is a floor being tested.

Brent holds the $92–105 range.

May 12 EIA retail diesel prints $5.70–5.90.

May 5 EIA retail diesel prints $5.70–5.75.

A September hike is live, not priced-out

Phosphate (DAP/MAP) stays structurally tight while nitrogen de-escalates — the complex does not move as one

Transit risk and freight/insurance premiums stay elevated with no normalization inside the horizon

Heavy long-end issuance keeps the refunding a live market event (auction tails, bid-to-cover)

Gold consolidates near $4,000 as a coiled spring — a rates cap holding price over a structural central-bank bid

Copper is a separately-driven bull, decoupled from gold and from record inventories

US distillate inventories stay at least 8% below the five-year average in every weekly EIA print released Oct 21 through Dec 31 2026

The NYH ULSD crack against WTI, from EIA daily spot prices, averages above $90/bbl in both November and December 2026

Hormuz AIS-visible transits stay below 20/day on every trailing 7-day average dated Oct 17 to Dec 31 2026

No signed US-Iran agreement that lifts the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and reopens the Strait of Hormuz is publicly confirmed as signed by both the U.S. and Iranian governments on or before Nov 3 2026

Hold in October, hike by December: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at its Oct 28 decision, and the range's upper bound is 4.25% or higher after the Dec 9 statement.

The 10-year stays high through Dec 9: the 10-year par yield on the US Treasury daily par yield curve is 4.85% or higher on Dec 9 2026 (5.09% on Oct 16)

Bitcoin's real-yield sensitivity, narrowed to what survived: the Pearson correlation of daily bitcoin log returns (FRED CBBTCUSD) with daily changes in the 10-year real yield (FRED DFII10), over consecutive DFII10 observation dates Oct 16–Dec 31 2026, is below zero

US food-at-home CPI is below 2.5% y/y on the November 2026 print

FAO Food Price Index is below 140.0 on the Dec 4 2026 release (November index), as first published

US egg CPI stays below year-ago on the November 2026 print despite the fall HPAI season

Phosphate stays tight: World Bank DAP averages at or above $780/t in October and November 2026, because the constraint is sulfur, not the tariff

Asia-Europe container spot resumes easing as Suez capacity returns: Drewry Shanghai-Rotterdam prints below $3,522/40ft on Dec 17 2026

The Red Sea return stays selective: the PortWatch Bab-el-Mandeb 7-day average stays below 35.0 transits/day through Dec 31 2026 (28.3 for Oct 5–11; 2026 range 23.7 to 42.6)

Gold's floor holds: the World Bank monthly gold price averages at or above $4,050/oz in both November and December 2026

Copper stays high on mine supply: the most-active COMEX copper contract settles at or above $6.00/lb every trading day from Oct 19 through Dec 31 2026

China keeps its October 2025 rare-earth package suspended past Nov 10: MOFCOM publishes a notice extending or replacing Announcement No. 70 by Nov 12 2026

California cold-storage operating-cost disadvantage widens further through 2026

Data-center load competition raises demand charges and interconnection delay for new refrigerated capacity in Texas and Georgia

The reefer/dry-van spot spread does NOT lead US food-at-home CPI at any established lag

Winter leafy-green supply remains a single-region concentration exposure through the Nov-Mar season

The CRE wall crests; office breaks as a separate, structural story

Industrial/logistics is the structural long (reshoring + supply discipline)

Insurance geography re-sorts demand independent of the Fed

Weak single-family permits lock in the 2027 shortage (price floor)

Higher-for-longer holds; the market prices a September hike

The market prices a hike CYCLE, not a cut

The US-Germany 2Y spread is the cleanest driver — and tighter than it first looked (~148bp)

De-dollarization is a slow structural drift, not a 90-day price driver

US equities grind higher on earnings while breadth-driven correction risk stays elevated — strong fundamentals, fragile price

Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle liquidity-drain consolidation, not a confirmed cyclical top

Distillate stays tight and cracks stay elevated — a product-margin call, explicitly not a crude flat-price call

Within 24 months, a second natural-strait sovereign (most likely Bab al-Mandeb) formalizes a transit-fee / pre-authorization regime modeled on Iran's PGSA — Hormuz is not a one-off.

Any Hormuz settlement institutionalizes a Persian permit/toll regime (PGSA or successor) rather than restoring unconditional free transit — AND Gulf war-risk insurance does not return to pre-war pricing within 2026.

D4 biomass-diesel RIN holds its post-Set-2 highs (baseline $2.41, Jun 4 EIA) and does not fade back to early-2026 lows (~$1.50).

The June 3 distillate build is a one-week pause, not a reversal — distillate inventories stay below the 5-year average.

The DFC + insurer-syndicate $40B Hormuz-transit reinsurance facility writes zero (or de-minimis) policies through end-June 2026 — the convoy precondition stays unmet.

Powell becomes the shadow chair through 2028 (pipeline read on the Fed succession).

No 1970s-style inflation regime change inside the horizon — the indicator cluster has not formed

Higher-for-longer: no cuts inside the 90-day window

Distillate holds its structural premium through September 1 absent a formal ban reversal

Nitrogen (urea/ammonia) spot stays off its April peak, with a gas-set cost floor beneath the decline

Hormuz behaves as a valve rather than a door — partial, cycling transit rather than binary closure or reopening

Chokepoint risk band holds HIGH or escalates to SEVERE across the 90-day horizon; no downgrade to ELEVATED

Both theaters stay gray-zone rather than kinetic — spillover and probing, not direct targeting

No global food-price crisis inside the horizon — buffers are adequate and the constraint is fertilizer, not grain

Housing is frozen, not falling — volumes, not prices, are the read

The long end stays elevated on term premium + supply, not just the policy rate

Positioning is crowded (record-short yen) — an unwind is the main two-way risk

Iranian permission-barrels (>40 Mbbl, ~1.6 mb/d) are the single biggest bearish force on crude and run entirely on GL X. Published second watchlist branch: if GL X lapses and Iranian flows drop, ~1.6 mb/d comes off and crude re-converges UPWARD.

USMCA review opens with a July 1 statutory deadline.

Iran asserts Hormuz closure authority — a PGSA permit regime stands up.

Distillate stays tight (~13% under 5-yr average) into the next print.

Mexico cross-border blockades fire June 11 — named to the date a week out.

The political price stops responding to headlines — signal exhaustion.

The WPSR '3% easing' is a gauge artifact — real tightness ~13% under the 5-year average.

OPEC+ delivers a token +188K bpd — no defection collapse.

The next 90 days of inflation have already happened in the supply chain (fuel → freight → industrial → food → wages) — not yet visible in the prints. Markets are a lagging rung.

CVSA International Roadcheck enforcement May 12–14.

Lloyd's war-risk does not reprice — the insurance arbiter holds.

The deal's breaking point runs through Beirut/Lebanon.

Diesel $5.50–6.50 if the disruption persists 60–90 days.

UAE's OPEC exit is structural, not tactical.

Pentagon needs ~6 months to clear Hormuz mines.

The 'Hormuz open' headline masks a ~9 ships/day reality against a 178/day baseline.

Ceasefire, then a Lebanon fracture.

The April 6 deadline slips again — the extension pattern holds.

Gulf Coast refinery damage holds retail diesel prints elevated.

Second negotiation deadline extension to April 6.

Brent $90–100 relief rally if Iran signals reopening.

FMCSA non-domiciled CDL rule takes effect March 16.