- The Record
- desk-metals-005
China keeps its October 2025 rare-earth package suspended past Nov 10: MOFCOM publishes a notice extending or replacing Announcement No. 70 by Nov 12 2026
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-12. Invalidation: MISSED if the October 2025 measures (including the 0.1% extraterritorial rule) take effect on or after Nov 10 2026 with no MOFCOM notice extending or replacing the suspension published by Nov 12 2026. CONFIRMED if such a notice is published by Nov 12 2026.
- Desk
- Metals & Mining · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- PROBABLE
- Prior probability
- 65% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Rates Cap Got Heavier. Gold's Floor Moved Up.
- Call ID
- desk-metals-005
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENMetals & Mining2026-10-17
Copper stays high on mine supply: the most-active COMEX copper contract settles at or above $6.00/lb every trading day from Oct 19 through Dec 31 2026
- OPENMetals & Mining2026-10-17
Gold's floor holds: the World Bank monthly gold price averages at or above $4,050/oz in both November and December 2026
- PARTIALMetals & Mining2026-07-26
Gold consolidates near $4,000 as a coiled spring — a rates cap holding price over a structural central-bank bid
- PARTIALMetals & Mining2026-07-26
Copper is a separately-driven bull, decoupled from gold and from record inventories
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.