- The Record
- desk-monetary-007
Bitcoin's real-yield sensitivity, narrowed to what survived: the Pearson correlation of daily bitcoin log returns (FRED CBBTCUSD) with daily changes in the 10-year real yield (FRED DFII10), over consecutive DFII10 observation dates Oct 16–Dec 31 2026, is below zero
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-16 to 2026-12-31. Invalidation: Correlation at or above zero over the window, computed from FRED data as published on Jan 4 2027 (ALFRED vintage dated 2027-01-04 if later revised): for each pair of consecutive dates with a DFII10 value from Oct 16 through Dec 31 2026, the DFII10 change (percentage points) and the CBBTCUSD natural-log return between the same two dates; drop any pair where CBBTCUSD has no value on either date; Pearson correlation of the two lists
- Desk
- Macro / Monetary · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- POSSIBLE
- Prior probability
- 60% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Hike Came. The Long End Went Further.
- Call ID
- desk-monetary-007
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
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- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.