- The Record
- desk-monetary-002
The long end stays elevated on term premium + supply, not just the policy rate
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Aug 5, 2026 Treasury Quarterly Refunding
- Resolved
- August 5, 2026
- Graded
- October 18, 2026
- Outcome
- On Aug 5, refunding day, the 10-year par yield was 4.63%, the 2-year 4.18% (2s10s +45bp) and the 30-year 5.17%, with the NY Fed ACM 10-year term premium at 0.75% (Treasury par curve; NY Fed). The long end stayed elevated with a positive term premium and a steep curve. Corrected Oct 18 2026: the outcome first published here quoted late-September levels (10-year 5.29%, 2-year 4.88%, 30-year 5.63%) under an Aug 5 date.
- Desk
- Macro / Monetary · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Cuts Aren't Coming.
- Call ID
- desk-monetary-002
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
- 2026-10-18 confirmed (unchanged). Outcome evidence corrected to Aug 5 values; it had quoted late-September levels under an Aug 5 date. Grade unchanged.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
Read the full desk briefs in the Intel Suite
Desk calls are published inside sector briefs that state the evidence, the invalidation condition and the next trigger. Subscribers read each brief when it is written, before the outcome is known.
View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Hold in October, hike by December: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at its Oct 28 decision, and the range's upper bound is 4.25% or higher after the Dec 9 statement.
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
The 10-year stays high through Dec 9: the 10-year par yield on the US Treasury daily par yield curve is 4.85% or higher on Dec 9 2026 (5.09% on Oct 16)
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Bitcoin's real-yield sensitivity, narrowed to what survived: the Pearson correlation of daily bitcoin log returns (FRED CBBTCUSD) with daily changes in the 10-year real yield (FRED DFII10), over consecutive DFII10 observation dates Oct 16–Dec 31 2026, is below zero
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
Higher-for-longer: no cuts inside the 90-day window
- PARTIALMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
A September hike is live, not priced-out
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.