- The Record
- desk-monetary-003
A September hike is live, not priced-out
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Aug 12 2026 CPI print; then the September FOMC statement language
- Resolved
- September 16, 2026
- Graded
- October 3, 2026
- Outcome
- The FOMC raised 25bp to 3.75–4.00% on 16 Sep 2026, voting 12–0 — its first increase since July 2023, against 3.4% annual inflation. The directional call was right. Graded partial because the second clause did not hold: by the meeting the move was priced in, though it was not when the call was made on 26 July.
- Desk
- Macro / Monetary · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Cuts Aren't Coming.
- Call ID
- desk-monetary-003
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
Read the full desk briefs in the Intel Suite
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
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Hold in October, hike by December: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at its Oct 28 decision, and the range's upper bound is 4.25% or higher after the Dec 9 statement.
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- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
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- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
Higher-for-longer: no cuts inside the 90-day window
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
The long end stays elevated on term premium + supply, not just the policy rate
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.