- The Record
- desk-monetary-btc
Bitcoin trades as a liquidity asset in this regime — real yields/liquidity, not war headlines, are the marginal driver
- Status
- Missed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- FOMC Sept 15–16 + refunding Aug 5
- Resolved
- September 16, 2026
- Graded
- October 18, 2026
- What happened
- Missed on its stated invalidation: bitcoin rallied while real yields rose and liquidity tightened. Jul 24 to Sep 16: bitcoin $64,108 to $76,209 (FRED CBBTCUSD); 10-year real yield 2.43% to 2.68% (Treasury real par curve); the Fed hiked on Sep 16. Explaining the rally by buybacks or fund flows would stretch "liquidity" to fit any outcome, so the desk declines it. The narrower day-to-day relationship survives and is re-filed as MONETARY-007.
- Desk
- Macro / Monetary · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Cuts Aren't Coming.
- Call ID
- desk-monetary-btc
Regrade log
- 2026-10-18 open → missed. Left OPEN past its Sep 16 checkpoint; graded missed.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
Read the full desk briefs in the Intel Suite
Desk calls are published inside sector briefs that state the evidence, the invalidation condition and the next trigger. Subscribers read each brief when it is written, before the outcome is known.
View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Hold in October, hike by December: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at its Oct 28 decision, and the range's upper bound is 4.25% or higher after the Dec 9 statement.
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
The 10-year stays high through Dec 9: the 10-year par yield on the US Treasury daily par yield curve is 4.85% or higher on Dec 9 2026 (5.09% on Oct 16)
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Bitcoin's real-yield sensitivity, narrowed to what survived: the Pearson correlation of daily bitcoin log returns (FRED CBBTCUSD) with daily changes in the 10-year real yield (FRED DFII10), over consecutive DFII10 observation dates Oct 16–Dec 31 2026, is below zero
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
Higher-for-longer: no cuts inside the 90-day window
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
The long end stays elevated on term premium + supply, not just the policy rate
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.