- The Record
- desk-fert-002
Phosphate (DAP/MAP) stays structurally tight while nitrogen de-escalates — the complex does not move as one
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Aug 31 2026 — phosphate benchmark check against the nitrogen tape
- Resolved
- August 31, 2026
- Graded
- October 3, 2026
- Outcome
- DTN retail for the week of 21–25 Sep: DAP $926/ton and MAP $970 against urea $675 and UAN32 $479, with China's phosphate export suspension running 14 Mar–31 Aug and resumption expected under quotas cutting volumes 30–40%. Phosphate stayed tight and the complex plainly did not move as one. Graded partial because nitrogen firmed late rather than de-escalating throughout: anhydrous ammonia $977, +6% m/m.
- Desk
- Food & Agriculture · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Ras Laffan Broke. The Floor Held.
- Call ID
- desk-fert-002
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.