- The Record
- desk-foodsec-005
US food-at-home CPI is below 2.5% y/y on the November 2026 print
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-17 to 2026-12-10. Invalidation: BLS CPI food at home, US city average, not seasonally adjusted, 12-month change as published (one decimal) at or above 2.5% for November 2026 (released Dec 10 2026). The October 2026 print (Nov 10) carries no 12-month change for this index because BLS did not collect October 2025 data
- Desk
- Food & Agriculture · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- POSSIBLE
- Prior probability
- 45% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Stocks Held. The Routes Didn't.
- Call ID
- desk-foodsec-005
Provenance
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- OPENFood & Agriculture2026-10-17
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- OPENFood & Agriculture2026-10-17
Phosphate stays tight: World Bank DAP averages at or above $780/t in October and November 2026, because the constraint is sulfur, not the tariff
- MISSEDFood & Agriculture2026-08-01
California cold-storage operating-cost disadvantage widens further through 2026
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.