- The Record
- desk-fert-003
Phosphate stays tight: World Bank DAP averages at or above $780/t in October and November 2026, because the constraint is sulfur, not the tariff
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-17 to 2026-12-10. Invalidation: World Bank Pink Sheet DAP (spot, f.o.b. US Gulf) monthly average below $780.0/t for October 2026 or November 2026, as first published in the Nov 3 2026 Pink Sheet (October) and the December 2026 Pink Sheet (November; date not yet posted by the World Bank)
- Desk
- Food & Agriculture · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- POSSIBLE
- Prior probability
- 70% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Stocks Held. The Routes Didn't.
- Call ID
- desk-fert-003
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.