- The Record
- cs-call-6-corn-acres
USDA NASS Prospective Plantings (scheduled March 31, 2027) reports 2027 U.S. corn planted-area intentions (all purposes) below 95.0 million acres, as first published.
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 27, 2026
- Resolution window
- Resolves on the NASS Prospective Plantings report scheduled March 31, 2027, as first published (nass.usda.gov). If the report is delayed, the call resolves on its first release. If it has not been published by April 30, 2027, the call is void. Baselines: March 2026 intentions 95.338M acres (NASS, Mar 31 2026); 2026 planted ~96.8M (WASDE, Oct 9 2026). Cause test, recorded before the report: Oct 2026-Feb 2027 average ratio of November 2027 soybean futures to December 2027 corn futures (farmdoc model), and DTN retail anhydrous price in early March 2027. If the price ratio alone explains the drop, score the call a hit but count it as no support for the fertilizer thesis.
- Desk
- Food & Agriculture · Civilizational Science
- Stated confidence
- POSSIBLE
- Prior probability
- 52% at registration
- Source
- The QAFCO Lag (Civilizational Science, Oct 27, 2026), Record Call #6
- Call ID
- cs-call-6-corn-acres
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.