- The Record
- desk-dollarfx-001
A firm-to-firmer dollar into a Fed hike cycle (mild grind, not a breakout)
- Status
- Missed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Sept 16 2026 FOMC decision
- Resolved
- September 16, 2026
- Graded
- October 3, 2026
- What happened
- DXY closed at 101.510 on 27 Jul — the window high, set the day the call was made — and 100.310 at the 16 Sep FOMC, a 1.18% decline, with a 98.770 low on 9 Sep. The hike cycle began as described and there was no breakout, but the call named a firm-to-firmer dollar and the dollar softened from the first day. Direction was the thesis, and the direction was wrong.
- Desk
- FX / Dollar · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Dollar Runs on the Fed, Not Faith.
- Call ID
- desk-dollarfx-001
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → missed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.