- The Record
- desk-dollarfx-005
De-dollarization is a slow structural drift, not a 90-day price driver
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- BRICS summit (Aug–Sep) + next COFER release
- Resolved
- September 30, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- The BRICS summit in New Delhi (Sep 12–13) endorsed more local-currency settlement and payment links but created no common currency. IMF COFER data released Sep 30 showed the dollar's share of reserves slipping about half a point to 56.7% in the second quarter, a modest move. Over the window the dollar followed US rates.
- Desk
- FX / Dollar · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Dollar Runs on the Fed, Not Faith.
- Call ID
- desk-dollarfx-005
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
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- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
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- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
The US-Germany 2Y spread is the cleanest driver — and tighter than it first looked (~148bp)
- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
Positioning is crowded (record-short yen) — an unwind is the main two-way risk
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.