- The Record
- desk-dollarfx-003
The US-Germany 2Y spread is the cleanest driver — and tighter than it first looked (~148bp)
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- ECB meeting ~Sept 10–11, 2026
- Resolved
- September 11, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- The two-year gap between US and German yields never reached the 120 basis point line that would have broken the call. It narrowed to about 131–136bp in late August and stood near 145bp at the Sep 10 ECB hike. It has since widened to about 166bp because the Fed hiked six days after the ECB. The dollar index tracked it, dipping below 99 in the week of the narrowest gap and rising to about 102 as the gap widened. The margin in late August was thin, and we are recording it.
- Desk
- FX / Dollar · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Dollar Runs on the Fed, Not Faith.
- Call ID
- desk-dollarfx-003
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.