- The Record
- desk-dollarfx-002
The market prices a hike CYCLE, not a cut
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- FOMC Sept 15–16, 2026 (SEP)
- Resolved
- September 16, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- The September dot plot moved up, with the end-2026 median at 4.1% and 16 of 18 officials projecting another hike this year. By early October, futures priced an 85% chance of another hike by December and about 80% odds of at least two more by March 2027. Markets are pricing a sequence of hikes. The Fed itself has delivered one so far.
- Desk
- FX / Dollar · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — The Dollar Runs on the Fed, Not Faith.
- Call ID
- desk-dollarfx-002
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
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- MISSEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
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- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
The US-Germany 2Y spread is the cleanest driver — and tighter than it first looked (~148bp)
- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
Positioning is crowded (record-short yen) — an unwind is the main two-way risk
- CONFIRMEDFX / Dollar2026-07-26
De-dollarization is a slow structural drift, not a 90-day price driver
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.