- The Record
- desk-realest-005
Weak single-family permits lock in the 2027 shortage (price floor)
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Census/HUD New Residential Construction — mid-Aug 2026
- Resolved
- August 31, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- Single-family permits did not break out. They ran 872,000, 894,000 and 878,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from June through August, well short of the 950,000 we said would signal a supply recovery and never under the 850,000 floor. They also did not keep weakening: July's print rose. Home prices held, with September's median up 1.3% from a year earlier. Whether this produces a 2027 shortage is a question for 2027.
- Desk
- Real Assets · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Frozen, Not Falling.
- Call ID
- desk-realest-005
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.