- The Record
- desk-realest-004
Insurance geography re-sorts demand independent of the Fed
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Atlantic hurricane-season peak — Aug–Oct 2026
- Resolved
- October 31, 2026
- Graded
- October 31, 2026
- Outcome
- California moved as called: the FAIR Plan's 29.1% average increase took effect Oct 15. Florida went the other way: regulators approved a run of private-carrier rate cuts beyond Citizens (four more on Sep 22, 3.2–10.4%), and Citizens shrank to about 255,000 policies, which meets half of the invalidation for Florida. The hurricane trigger fired weakly: Isaias made a Category 2 landfall near Destin on Oct 9–10 with insured-loss estimates of about $1–4.5B, and brokers expect January 1 reinsurance rates to keep falling, so no reinsurance spike re-accelerated premiums. Non-renewal data for 2025 was not published in the window, and the call never named a measurable demand outcome, so the core re-sorting claim was not tested directly.
- Desk
- Real Assets · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Frozen, Not Falling.
- Call ID
- desk-realest-004
Regrade log
- 2026-10-31 open → partial. Graded Oct 31 2026 when the Aug–Oct window closed. Provisional PARTIAL since Oct 19; no further US hurricane landfall after Isaias.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.