- The Record
- desk-realest-003
Industrial/logistics is the structural long (reshoring + supply discipline)
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- CBRE/JLL/C&W Q3 reports + Prologis Q3 — mid-Oct 2026
- Resolved
- October 31, 2026
- Graded
- October 31, 2026
- Outcome
- All four named sources are out and none tripped the invalidation (vacancy above 8% with two quarters of negative absorption, or a Prologis guidance cut). CBRE Q3: net absorption 104.6M sq ft, the highest quarter since Q4 2022; vacancy 6.4%, down 20 bp year over year; asking rent +3.6%. JLL Q3: vacancy 6.8%, down 80 bp; year-to-date absorption 231.6M sq ft, already past all of 2025; asking rent +3.2%. Cushman & Wakefield Q3: vacancy 6.8%, absorption 76.6M sq ft. Prologis Q3 raised the low end of 2026 Core FFO guidance ($6.25–6.29) and raised same-store NOI guidance. The brief's re-tightening line was sub-6.5%: CBRE is through it, JLL and C&W are not. Against the call: Prologis cut its GAAP earnings range, the construction pipeline is up about 23% year over year, so supply discipline is loosening, and no source measures reshoring as the driver.
- Desk
- Real Assets · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Frozen, Not Falling.
- Call ID
- desk-realest-003
Regrade log
- 2026-10-31 open → confirmed. Graded Oct 31 2026. Provisional CONFIRMED since Oct 19 on Cushman & Wakefield and Prologis; held for CBRE and JLL national Q3, both now out and both support it.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.