- The Record
- desk-realest-002
The CRE wall crests; office breaks as a separate, structural story
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Trepp July print — early Aug 2026
- Resolved
- August 31, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- The office half held: Trepp's office delinquency rate rose from 11.57% to 11.91% in July, then 12.00% in August and 12.16% in September, crossing the 12% line we named for accelerating distress. The other half did not. We said the broader maturity wall was cresting; overall CMBS delinquency rose 51 basis points in July and reached 8.02% in September, its highest since 2020, and multifamily passed the 8% line we set to invalidate our constructive view of it (Trepp CMBS Delinquency Reports, Jul–Sep 2026).
- Desk
- Real Assets · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Frozen, Not Falling.
- Call ID
- desk-realest-002
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.