- The Record
- desk-mar-002
Transit risk and freight/insurance premiums stay elevated with no normalization inside the horizon
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- July 26, 2026
- Resolution window
- Aug 15 2026 — war-risk premium and transit-count review across all three pressure points
- Resolved
- August 15, 2026
- Graded
- October 3, 2026
- Outcome
- Transit risk stayed elevated with no normalization on any of the three pressure points — transit collapse, reimposed sanctions, no reopening. Graded partial because the freight-and-insurance-premium half could not be evidenced: no current war-risk premium rate was sourced from a broker, so that clause rests on circumstance rather than a quoted figure.
- Desk
- Maritime · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Three Pressure Points, One Freight Market.
- Call ID
- desk-mar-002
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
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The Red Sea return stays selective: the PortWatch Bab-el-Mandeb 7-day average stays below 35.0 transits/day through Dec 31 2026 (28.3 for Oct 5–11; 2026 range 23.7 to 42.6)
- CONFIRMEDMaritime2026-07-20
Hormuz behaves as a valve rather than a door — partial, cycling transit rather than binary closure or reopening
- OPENMaritime2026-06-22
Within 24 months, a second natural-strait sovereign (most likely Bab al-Mandeb) formalizes a transit-fee / pre-authorization regime modeled on Iran's PGSA — Hormuz is not a one-off.
- OPENMaritime2026-06-16
Any Hormuz settlement institutionalizes a Persian permit/toll regime (PGSA or successor) rather than restoring unconditional free transit — AND Gulf war-risk insurance does not return to pre-war pricing within 2026.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.