- The Record
- desk-mar-004
Asia-Europe container spot resumes easing as Suez capacity returns: Drewry Shanghai-Rotterdam prints below $3,522/40ft on Dec 17 2026
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-17 to 2026-12-17. Invalidation: Shanghai-Rotterdam at or above $3,522/40ft on the Dec 17 2026 WCI print.
- Desk
- Maritime · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- POSSIBLE
- Prior probability
- 50% at registration
- Source
- Desk — One Strait at War, One Lane Coming Back.
- Call ID
- desk-mar-004
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENMaritime2026-10-17
The Red Sea return stays selective: the PortWatch Bab-el-Mandeb 7-day average stays below 35.0 transits/day through Dec 31 2026 (28.3 for Oct 5–11; 2026 range 23.7 to 42.6)
- PARTIALMaritime2026-07-26
Transit risk and freight/insurance premiums stay elevated with no normalization inside the horizon
- CONFIRMEDMaritime2026-07-20
Hormuz behaves as a valve rather than a door — partial, cycling transit rather than binary closure or reopening
- OPENMaritime2026-06-22
Within 24 months, a second natural-strait sovereign (most likely Bab al-Mandeb) formalizes a transit-fee / pre-authorization regime modeled on Iran's PGSA — Hormuz is not a one-off.
- OPENMaritime2026-06-16
Any Hormuz settlement institutionalizes a Persian permit/toll regime (PGSA or successor) rather than restoring unconditional free transit — AND Gulf war-risk insurance does not return to pre-war pricing within 2026.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.