- The Record
- cs-cascade
The next 90 days of inflation have already happened in the supply chain (fuel → freight → industrial → food → wages) — not yet visible in the prints. Markets are a lagging rung.
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- May 5, 2026
- Resolution window
- CPI/PPI prints, weeks
- Resolved
- May 17, 2026
- Outcome
- Confirmed in ~12 days: April CPI 3.8% (highest since 2023); April PPI steepest climb since 2022; 2026 rate-cut odds collapsed toward zero; 2-yr yield at 14-month high.
- Desk
- Macro / Monetary · Civilizational Science
- Source
- Dispatch #2 — The Cascade
- Call ID
- cs-cascade
Provenance
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- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Hold in October, hike by December: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at its Oct 28 decision, and the range's upper bound is 4.25% or higher after the Dec 9 statement.
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
The 10-year stays high through Dec 9: the 10-year par yield on the US Treasury daily par yield curve is 4.85% or higher on Dec 9 2026 (5.09% on Oct 16)
- OPENMacro / Monetary2026-10-17
Bitcoin's real-yield sensitivity, narrowed to what survived: the Pearson correlation of daily bitcoin log returns (FRED CBBTCUSD) with daily changes in the 10-year real yield (FRED DFII10), over consecutive DFII10 observation dates Oct 16–Dec 31 2026, is below zero
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
Higher-for-longer: no cuts inside the 90-day window
- CONFIRMEDMacro / Monetary2026-07-26
The long end stays elevated on term premium + supply, not just the policy rate
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.