- The Record
- cs-call-2-distillate
The June 3 distillate build is a one-week pause, not a reversal — distillate inventories stay below the 5-year average.
- Status
- Missed
- Date made
- June 9, 2026
- Resolution window
- EIA WPSR weekly prints, 2–4 weeks. Refuted if builds extend several consecutive weeks toward the norm.
- Resolved
- July 7, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- What happened
- The call said the early-June distillate build was a one-week pause. Instead, inventories rose three weeks in a row inside the window (Jun 12, 19, 26; +6.6M bbl) and the gap to the five-year average narrowed from 13% to 8%, which is the refutation condition we set in advance. Stocks never reached the average, and the build reversed after the window closed, but that does not change the grade. The dispatch also overstated the June easing: EIA's series puts the week ending May 29 about 11% below average, not 3%.
- Note
- First beat confirmed same day: Jun 10 print showed a 0.2 MMbbl draw, ~13% below 5-yr average, refinery utilization 95.3%.
- Desk
- Energy · Civilizational Science
- Source
- Dispatch #4 — The Two Prices, Record Call #2
- Call ID
- cs-call-2-distillate
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → missed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.