- The Record
- oil-glx-revoke
Iranian permission-barrels (>40 Mbbl, ~1.6 mb/d) are the single biggest bearish force on crude and run entirely on GL X. Published second watchlist branch: if GL X lapses and Iranian flows drop, ~1.6 mb/d comes off and crude re-converges UPWARD.
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 1, 2026
- Resolution window
- by the printed Aug 21 GL X expiry
- Resolved
- July 7, 2026
- Outcome
- GL X revoked July 7 (45 days early) after IRGC shipping attacks; Brent ran low-$70s (July 1) -> ~$98-100 by July 23. The second watchlist branch resolved correct ahead of expiry. Transparency: Issue #003 (July 20 dateline) published this AFTER resolution, labeled a resolved hit — the call itself was made on the July 1 research pass.
- Desk
- Energy · Oil & Energy Desk
- Source
- Oil & Energy Desk Issue #003 — The Barrels Came Back. The Permission Slip Expires.
- Call ID
- oil-glx-revoke
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.