- The Record
- cs-call-3-insurance
The DFC + insurer-syndicate $40B Hormuz-transit reinsurance facility writes zero (or de-minimis) policies through end-June 2026 — the convoy precondition stays unmet.
- Status
- Partial
- Date made
- June 9, 2026
- Resolution window
- DFC disclosures / insurer Q2 calls (~late July), or sooner if convoys launch.
- Resolved
- June 30, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- Trade-press reporting on June 26 said the $40 billion facility had still written zero policies, and we found no report of any policy written through the end of June. That part of the call held. The reason we gave, that U.S. convoys had not started, is contested: two cabinet officials said in mid-June that Navy escorts were running, though no formal convoy program was confirmed. With the mechanism disputed and no DFC uptake figures published, we grade this partial.
- Desk
- Maritime · Civilizational Science
- Source
- Dispatch #4 — The Two Prices, Record Call #3
- Call ID
- cs-call-3-insurance
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → partial. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
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- OPENMaritime2026-10-17
The Red Sea return stays selective: the PortWatch Bab-el-Mandeb 7-day average stays below 35.0 transits/day through Dec 31 2026 (28.3 for Oct 5–11; 2026 range 23.7 to 42.6)
- PARTIALMaritime2026-07-26
Transit risk and freight/insurance premiums stay elevated with no normalization inside the horizon
- CONFIRMEDMaritime2026-07-20
Hormuz behaves as a valve rather than a door — partial, cycling transit rather than binary closure or reopening
- OPENMaritime2026-06-22
Within 24 months, a second natural-strait sovereign (most likely Bab al-Mandeb) formalizes a transit-fee / pre-authorization regime modeled on Iran's PGSA — Hormuz is not a one-off.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.