- The Record
- desk-geo-002b
Hormuz AIS-visible transits stay below 20/day on every trailing 7-day average dated Oct 17 to Dec 31 2026
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-17 to 2026-12-31. Invalidation: Any trailing 7-day average of PortWatch daily Hormuz n_total at or above 20 for a date between Oct 17 and Dec 31 2026.
- Desk
- Geopolitical · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- PROBABLE
- Prior probability
- 80% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Oil Got Out. The Ships Did Not.
- Call ID
- desk-geo-002b
Provenance
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.