- The Record
- desk-geo-001
Chokepoint risk band holds HIGH or escalates to SEVERE across the 90-day horizon; no downgrade to ELEVATED
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- July 27, 2026
- Resolution window
- Aug 15 2026 — Hormuz transit count and Gulf war-risk premium review
- Resolved
- August 15, 2026
- Graded
- October 18, 2026
- Outcome
- No downgrade to ELEVATED by the Aug 15 review: no ceasefire had held 30 days, and IMF PortWatch counted 4.7 Hormuz transits a day in August against 78.3 before the war. Post-review context through Oct 17 is consistent: the Islamabad memorandum's 60-day window lapsed Aug 17 without agreement (bne IntelliNews), US forces struck nearly 60 targets around the strait on Sep 1 (CNN, Sep 2), and transits averaged 3.6 a day in September (PortWatch). Corrected Oct 18 2026: the outcome first published here cited an OFAC action of Jul 7, which predates the call.
- Desk
- Geopolitical · Intel Suite Desk
- Source
- Desk — Multiple Chokepoints, No Bypass.
- Call ID
- desk-geo-001
Regrade log
- 2026-10-03 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 3 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
- 2026-10-18 confirmed (unchanged). Outcome evidence corrected: it cited a Jul 7 event that predates the Jul 27 call. Grade unchanged.
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENGeopolitical2026-10-17
Hormuz AIS-visible transits stay below 20/day on every trailing 7-day average dated Oct 17 to Dec 31 2026
- OPENGeopolitical2026-10-17
No signed US-Iran agreement that lifts the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and reopens the Strait of Hormuz is publicly confirmed as signed by both the U.S. and Iranian governments on or before Nov 3 2026
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-07-20
Both theaters stay gray-zone rather than kinetic — spillover and probing, not direct targeting
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-06-04
Mexico cross-border blockades fire June 11 — named to the date a week out.
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-05-03
The deal's breaking point runs through Beirut/Lebanon.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.