- The Record
- desk-geo-002c
No signed US-Iran agreement that lifts the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and reopens the Strait of Hormuz is publicly confirmed as signed by both the U.S. and Iranian governments on or before Nov 3 2026
- Status
- Open, graded when the resolution window closes
- Date made
- October 17, 2026
- Resolution window
- 2026-10-17 to 2026-11-03. Invalidation: By 11:59 p.m. ET Nov 3 2026, both the U.S. government (President, White House or State Department) and the Iranian government (President's office, Foreign Ministry or Supreme National Security Council) have publicly stated that a signed text exists that lifts the blockade and reopens the strait. One side's statement alone does not count.
- Desk
- Geopolitical · Intel Suite Desk
- Stated confidence
- PROBABLE
- Prior probability
- 85% at registration
- Source
- Desk — The Oil Got Out. The Ships Did Not.
- Call ID
- desk-geo-002c
Provenance
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View Intel Suite plansRelated calls
- OPENGeopolitical2026-10-17
Hormuz AIS-visible transits stay below 20/day on every trailing 7-day average dated Oct 17 to Dec 31 2026
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-07-27
Chokepoint risk band holds HIGH or escalates to SEVERE across the 90-day horizon; no downgrade to ELEVATED
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-07-20
Both theaters stay gray-zone rather than kinetic — spillover and probing, not direct targeting
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-06-04
Mexico cross-border blockades fire June 11 — named to the date a week out.
- CONFIRMEDGeopolitical2026-05-03
The deal's breaking point runs through Beirut/Lebanon.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.