- The Record
- cs-call-1-d4-rin
D4 biomass-diesel RIN holds its post-Set-2 highs (baseline $2.41, Jun 4 EIA) and does not fade back to early-2026 lows (~$1.50).
- Status
- Confirmed
- Date made
- June 9, 2026
- Resolution window
- Weekly OPIS/EPA D4 prints, 4–8 weeks. Refuted if closes below $1.50 absent policy reversal; confirmed if holds above ~$2.00 through summer.
- Resolved
- August 4, 2026
- Graded
- October 19, 2026
- Outcome
- The 2026 D4 credit stayed above the $2.00 line in every weekly broker recap across the four-to-eight-week window and never came near the $1.50 refutation level; its in-window low was about $2.11. It did not hold the $2.41 starting level, closing the window near $2.20. In late August, after the window closed, it dipped below $2.00 on an EPA exemption decision, which this grade does not count. Prices are broker-reported (PFL Petroleum), cross-checked against Aegis futures data; EPA's own weekly series sits in its Qlik reporting tool and was not checked.
- Desk
- Energy · Civilizational Science
- Source
- Dispatch #4 — The Two Prices, Record Call #1
- Call ID
- cs-call-1-d4-rin
Regrade log
- 2026-10-19 open → confirmed. Sealed OPEN in the genesis anchor (Aug 28 2026); graded Oct 19 2026. resolved_date is the call's scheduled checkpoint; outcome evidence dated after the checkpoint is post-window context.
Provenance
Every call on the Record is hashed with SHA-256 over its canonical JSON, and the hashes are sealed into a Merkle root anchored on the Base blockchain. A grade or correction written after an anchor appears in the regrade log with its date and is sealed at the next anchor. The anchor page explains how to verify a call against the chain, and the full Record lists every call with the strict and directional tallies.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is published research of general circulation and is not individualized investment advice. Each call is graded against the invalidation condition it was published with.